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51317--9560-Development of a Probabilistic Framework for Integrity and Risk Assessment of Unpigabble Pipelines

The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for the integrity assessment of unpiggable pipelines, which are subject to internal corrosion. This integrity assessment is done by combining probabilistic flow and corrosion models with risk assessment.

Product Number: 51317--9560-SG
ISBN: 9560 2017 CP
Author: Carlos Melo Gonzalez
Publication Date: 2017
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The baseline for pipeline integrity is usually established using a validation technique such as in-line inspection (ILI). However there are many pipelines that present operational restrictions for the use of ILI tools these pipelines are known as unpiggable. The purpose of this paper is to present the framework for the risk and integrity assessment of unpiggable pipelines. This paper will focus on internal corrosion including microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC).The proposed framework will include flow simulation internal corrosion modelling and risk assessment. The flow simulation will consider a multi-phase fluid to represent the operational conditions of gathering pipelines. For internal corrosion prediction the electrochemical model used will include the influence of solids deposition and also a DNA sequencing analysis for assessing MIC. Then corrosion growth modelling and quantitative risk assessment will be used to estimate the location and rate of internal corrosion and to calculate the probability and consequence of failure respectively. The considered pipeline operates within an environmentally sensitive area therefore this framework will concentrate the analysis on this specific application. In addition the risk model will be used to define the optimum location time and techniques of inspection that will be performed by direct examination of the pipeline. Field verification will be applied in each stage of the process once data is available and this information will be used for model validation. The risk assessment approach will also identify mitigation actions to reduce the probability of failure due to internal corrosion.Analytical flow simulators and internal corrosion prediction tools are currently used as deterministic processes therefore this framework proposes a new stochastic approach to improve the knowledge and understanding of the uncertainties involved in the corrosion growth. Finally this framework represents an alternative for the risk and integrity assessment of unpiggable pipelines.

Key words: unpiggable pipeline, risk assessment, pipeline integrity, internal corrosion, optimal decision making

The baseline for pipeline integrity is usually established using a validation technique such as in-line inspection (ILI). However there are many pipelines that present operational restrictions for the use of ILI tools these pipelines are known as unpiggable. The purpose of this paper is to present the framework for the risk and integrity assessment of unpiggable pipelines. This paper will focus on internal corrosion including microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC).The proposed framework will include flow simulation internal corrosion modelling and risk assessment. The flow simulation will consider a multi-phase fluid to represent the operational conditions of gathering pipelines. For internal corrosion prediction the electrochemical model used will include the influence of solids deposition and also a DNA sequencing analysis for assessing MIC. Then corrosion growth modelling and quantitative risk assessment will be used to estimate the location and rate of internal corrosion and to calculate the probability and consequence of failure respectively. The considered pipeline operates within an environmentally sensitive area therefore this framework will concentrate the analysis on this specific application. In addition the risk model will be used to define the optimum location time and techniques of inspection that will be performed by direct examination of the pipeline. Field verification will be applied in each stage of the process once data is available and this information will be used for model validation. The risk assessment approach will also identify mitigation actions to reduce the probability of failure due to internal corrosion.Analytical flow simulators and internal corrosion prediction tools are currently used as deterministic processes therefore this framework proposes a new stochastic approach to improve the knowledge and understanding of the uncertainties involved in the corrosion growth. Finally this framework represents an alternative for the risk and integrity assessment of unpiggable pipelines.

Key words: unpiggable pipeline, risk assessment, pipeline integrity, internal corrosion, optimal decision making

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