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Estimating the Financial Risk Reductions Associated with Cathodic Protection Programs

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On an increasingly frequent basis, pipeline operators are using risk-based decision making to prioritize cross-company expenditures. Due to the long-term mitigation benefits of Cathodic Protection (CP), when planning external corrosion mitigation activities, pipeline operators typically prioritize mitigation of deeper anomalies for integrity expenditures due to their higher Probability of Failure (PoF). However, anomalies that are not receiving adequate CP or those experiencing electrical interference may remain unaddressed using this rationale. This paper presents both a qualitative and semi-quantitative approach to support the quantification of the risk reduction benefits gained from external corrosion prevention on pipelines. This can help in the efficient prioritization of both pro-active and re-active integrity repair activities. Supporting examples are also discussed to help explain the intended use of the methodology and the interpretation of the results.

Product Number: 51320-14546-SG

Author: Parth Iyer, Yoko Nakazato, Han Wu, Millan Sen, Len Krissa

Publication Date: 2020

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Estimating Corrosion Rate Risk Distributions using Machine Learning and Geospatial Analytics

Product Number: 51320-14640-SG

Author: Joseph Mazzella, Thomas Hayden, Haralampos Tsaprailis, Len Krissa

Publication Date: 2020

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Estimating corrosion growth rates for underground pipelines is a challenging problem. There are confounding variables with complex interaction effects that may result in unexpected outcomes. For instance, the relationship between soil conditions and AC interference is highly non-linear and challenging to model. This work expands upon prior work using a suite of machine learning tools to estimate corrosion rates. However, instead of estimating a single corrosion growth rate for a single girth weld address (GWA), this work estimates a distribution of potential corrosion growth rates. Modeling distributions provide a more effective risk-measurement framework, especially concerning high volatility or areas of severe tail risk.

This work relies heavily on machine learning and geospatial tools - particularly artificial neural networks and gradient boosted trees to estimate the corrosion rates and non-linear processes. Building upon prior work using data from a North American Operator, the models in this paper use additional variables from recent research in AC interference and microbiologically influenced corrosion to construct a higher accuracy and distribution-based model of pipeline corrosion risk.

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Estimating the Financial Risk Reductions Associated with Cathodic Protection Programs

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