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Uncertainty in Service Life Estimation and Need for a Probabilistic Approach

This paper considers the parameters that affect chloride induced corrosion in reinforced concrete structures and the effect of. variance in some of the parameters that influence the initiation period of chloride induced corrosion in reinforced concrete structures, on the service life estimates.

Product Number: 51317--9211-SG
ISBN: 9211 2017 CP
Author: Sumanth Cheruku
Publication Date: 2017
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Service life estimate presents the owner with an outline of when thestructure would require a corrosion related repair. This provides anowner with an option to prepare a budget plan to support future repairsand its acceptance in the industry is essential. Present service lifeestimates include a single value (usually the number of years) withrarely considering the uncertainty associated with each parameter inthe estimation process. The exclusion of this uncertainty induces achance for early failure which is a more critical case leading to theowner hustling to accommodate the budget for early repair. Thepaper intends to walk through the service life estimation processfor chloride-induced corrosion in reinforced concrete structureshighlighting the uncertainty associated with each parameter includingthe use of closed-form solution for Fick’s Law ASTM process forestimation of diffusion coefficient the influence of new reinforcing steel andnew admixtures in concrete and a few construction practices that mightaffect the estimate. The intent of this paper is to highlight theuncertainty associated with the service life estimate and promote theneed for a probabilistic approach towards durability determination.

Key words: Uncertainty, Service life, Chloride Induced Corrosion, Initiation Period, Probabilistic Service Life

Service life estimate presents the owner with an outline of when thestructure would require a corrosion related repair. This provides anowner with an option to prepare a budget plan to support future repairsand its acceptance in the industry is essential. Present service lifeestimates include a single value (usually the number of years) withrarely considering the uncertainty associated with each parameter inthe estimation process. The exclusion of this uncertainty induces achance for early failure which is a more critical case leading to theowner hustling to accommodate the budget for early repair. Thepaper intends to walk through the service life estimation processfor chloride-induced corrosion in reinforced concrete structureshighlighting the uncertainty associated with each parameter includingthe use of closed-form solution for Fick’s Law ASTM process forestimation of diffusion coefficient the influence of new reinforcing steel andnew admixtures in concrete and a few construction practices that mightaffect the estimate. The intent of this paper is to highlight theuncertainty associated with the service life estimate and promote theneed for a probabilistic approach towards durability determination.

Key words: Uncertainty, Service life, Chloride Induced Corrosion, Initiation Period, Probabilistic Service Life

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